알리바바는 미국 주식시장에서 상장폐지될 것인가?
오늘은 오랫만에 바이오가 아닌 종목에 대한 글을 써보네요. 최근 미-중 갈등이 심화되면서 미국에 상장된 중국 주식을 퇴출시키려는 법안이 미국 의회에서 논의되고 있습니다. 이와 관련해서 알리바바, 바이두, 징동닷컴 등 미국 주식시장에 상장된 중국 주식들이 조정을 받고 있습니다.
미국 주식 블로거들의 포털인 seekingalpha에 이와 관련해 알리바바가 미국 주식시장에서 퇴출될 것인지에 대해 살펴본 아티클이 나와서 한번 간략히 요약해 봅니다. 원문 링크는 이곳을 클릭하시면 되고 seekingalpha 아티클들은 2주간 무료 공개된 뒤에 유료전환되기 때문에 본문 전체를 스크랩해와서 포스팅 제일 아래에 붙였습니다.
일주일 전인 5/20 미국 상원에서 외국기업책임법안 S.945가 만장일치로 통과됐습니다. 이 법안은 외국 기업이 미국 회계감독위원회로부터 3년 연속 감사를 통과하지 못하면 상장폐지 또는 거래가 중지되도록 하는 법안으로 중국 기업이라고 명시하고 있지 않지만 모두들 중국 기업을 타게팅한 법안이라고 생각하고 있습니다. 다른 사안들에 대해서는 매번 대립하는 공화당과 민주당이 이 법안 처리에 있어서는 일사천리 한목소리였습니다. 하루 뒤 미국 하원에서도 유사한 법안을 준비중이라는 보도가 나왔고, 바이두는 미국 증시에서 자진 상장폐지를 고려중이라는 기사도 나왔습니다.
상원의원 John Kennedy (공화당)과 Chris Van Hollen (민주당)이 2019년 3월 공동발의한 S.945법안의 내용은 크게 두 파트로 나뉩니다. 첫번째는 미국 시장에 상장된 해외 기업은 외국 정부가 소유하거나 조종될 수 없다는 내용이고, 두번째는 상장 기업 회계 감독위원회 (Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, PCAOB, 닉네임 피카부 Peekaboo – 우리말의 ‘까꿍’에 해당)에게 해외기업의 회계감사를 감사할 권한이 주어집니다. 만일 해외기업이 피카부의 감사를 3년 연속 거부하면 미국 시장에서 상장폐지할 수 있습니다.
이 법안이 여타 국가의 미국 상장기업보다 중국기업을 타게팅한다고 보는 이유는 중국의 법은 해외기관이 자국 기업을 감사하지 못하도록 하고 있기 때문입니다. 이 지점이 두 법안이 충돌하는 부분입니다.
이 법안은 하원을 통과하고 대통령이 사인을 하면 법으로서 효력을 발휘하게 되는데, 중국에 대해서는 공화-민주 양당이 한목소리를 내고 있기 때문에 법안이 법이 되는 것은 시간 문제로 보입니다.
알리바바의 반응
알리바바는 지난 5/22에 실적발표를 했습니다. 당연히 이 주제는 컨퍼런스콜에서 가장 관심있는 주제였고 이에 대해 알리바바 CEO Maggie Wu는 다음과 같은 발언을 했습니다. 아티클에서 발췌한 발언의 앞뒤를 모두 포함해서 따왔습니다. 컨퍼런스콜 전문은 이곳 링크에서 보실 수 있습니다.
So I would like to talk about our outlook, but before that I want to address the recent bill passed by U.S. Senate Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. The proposed legislation would essentially prohibit a foreign issuer from being listed on U.S. Stock Exchange, if the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, this is our Peekaboo, is enabled to inspect all the work papers of the issuers auditors for three consecutive years due to certain reasons. We will closely monitor the development of this bill and I think it’s important for investors to understand Alibaba’s practice and issues raised under this proposed legislation.
First, there is an existing framework of the Peekaboo conduct -- of the Peekaboo and for its conduct, an inspection of audit companies with Chinese operations. In this regard, we understand that there has been ongoing dialogs among the big four accounting firms China’s securities regulator DSRC SEC and Peekaboo. With respect to the types of information that are permitted to be exchanged to issuers with Chinese operations while maintaining compliance with Chinese law.
Number two, Alibaba’s financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and since our inception in 1999, we have been audited by PWC Hong Kong, PWC Hong Kong is the local affiliate of the worldwide PWC’s firm and its auditing standards are overseen by the PWC national office in the United States. The integrity of Alibaba’s financial statements speaks for itself. We have been an SEC filer since 2014 and hold ourselves to the high standards of transparency. Each year we have received and qualified by the opinion our financial statements from PWC.
Third, trust is one of our core values and transparency and integrity are essential components of building trust with all of our stakeholders. All these years we have consistently aimed to grow the business for long-term, maintain compliance with all applicable laws and delivered value for our customers, employees and investors. Investors who bought our stock in 2014 IPO have tripled their investment over the past five and half years.
Given the above, we will endeavor to comply with any legislation whose aim is to protect and bring transparency to investors who buy securities of U.S. stock exchanges. Looking ahead despite a challenging quarter due to pandemic, we achieved our guidance of over $500 billion in revenue and delivered healthy, sustainable profit growth in fiscal year 2020. The reason we have been able to deliver these results is that we sow seeds years ago by investing in technology, in innovation, and in businesses that required far sight and long-term patients. Today the Alibaba digital economy remains strong and growing.
Looking ahead, we will continue the same strategy of delivering robust revenue growth and sustainable profit growth. Although, it is difficult to predict the uncertainty of global economic and geopolitical developments. Based on our current view of Chinese domestic consumption and enterprise digitization, we expect to generate over RMB650 billion in total revenue in fiscal year 2021. We believe our commitment to invest and deepen our value proposition to customers, thereby ensuring robust revenue and profit growth.
위 내용을 요약해보면
- 이미 중국 회사를 감사하는 회사들을 감사하는 프레임웍이 존재하고 SEC, DSRC (중국버전의 SEC), 피카부, 그리고 big 4 회계기업 (Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG, PwC) 사이에 어떻게 중국 기업들이 해외기업이 자국 기업을 감사하지 못하도록 하는 중국법을 지키면서 국제 투자자들에게 신뢰할 수 있고 통제 가능항 정보를 제공할 수 있는지에 대한 논의가 진행중.
- 알리바바의 회계는 1999년부터 미국의 GAAP 회계기준에 맞춰왔고 PwC의 홍콩 자회사 PwC Hong Kong의 감사를 받고 있으며 PwC Hong Kong은 미국 PwC 본사의 감독하에 있음. 또한 알리바바는 2014년부터 SEC에 회계자료를 제출해오고 있음.
- 신뢰는 알리바바의 핵심 가치 중 하나임
결론적으로 알리바바는 미국 주식시장 투자자들을 보호하고 투명성을 제공하는 것이 목적인 어떤 법안도 준수할 준비가 되어있다고 함.
팩트만 보자
필자는 팩트만 보자고 하면서 (1) 알리바바는 분명히 중국 정부 소유가 아니고 (2) 알리바바의 회계는 이미 GAAP을 준수하고 있어서 상황은 생각하는 것 보다 훨씬 좋다고 말합니다. (1)에 대해서는 여러가지 음모론들이 있으나 여기서는 넘어가도록 하죠.
필자는 중국 법을 우회하는 해법으로 VIE (variable interest entity) 구조를 언급합니다. VIE 구조에 대해서는 이곳 링크를 참조하시기 바랍니다. 기술적으로 미국 주식시장에서 거래되는 주식은 중국에 있는 알리바바의 주식이 아닌 케이만 군도에 설립된 알리바바 페이퍼 컴퍼니의 주식이기 때문에 중국법에 저촉되지 않을 수 있다고 합니다.
이상이 seekingalpha 아티클의 대략의 요약이었습니다. 관심있으신 분들은 직접 한번 읽어보시길 권해드립니다. 더불어 상원에서 통과된 이 법안은 일종의 3년 유예 (3년 연속 피카부의 감사를 거부해야 한다는 조건이 있으므로)가 있고 소급적용이 되지 않는다고 합니다. 따라서 법안이 시행되더라도 당장의 문제는 아니며, 법안 내용이 바뀌지 않은 채로 알리바바 주식의 조정이 온다면 오히려 매수 기회를 제공해주지 않을까 하는 생각도 듭니다.
Why I Think Alibaba Won't Be Delisted
Summary
The Senate passed bill S.945, which is generally marked as the bill that will delist Chinese companies.
If the company doesn't comply for three years in a row, it could be delisted.
Alibaba addressed the issue on the conference call and said that it already followed GAAP rules since 1999 and that it would do everything to comply with the law.
Chinese law prohibits foreign institutions like Peekaboo to look into the books of its companies.
I think there's a way to circumvent the two opposing laws, the American and the Chinese, if the bill would become a law.
I do much more than just articles at Potential Multibaggers: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Get started today »
Introduction
Forums, Facebook (FB) groups, discussion boards, comment sections and business media have all been filled with comments and opinions around S.945, the bill that passed the Senate and is generally marked as the one that will delist Chinese companies.
The examples that are given to illustrate affected Chinese stocks are almost always Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU). I'm not a shareholder of Baidu, and I even wrote an article in January why I won't invest in the company. Baidu would be in the early stages of moving its stock to Hong Kong.
I am a shareholder of Alibaba, and I know that a lot of investors on this platform are shareholders too. So, I researched to know if the delisting of Alibaba is a real threat or just a nothingburger. Let's first look at the bill itself.
The Bill That Passed The Senate
First, let's take a closer look at what's inside S.945. The Senate has voted a bill that was about foreign stocks, not just Chinese, to begin with, although Chinese stocks are the primary aim. Most media portrayed it as if the bill, if it became law, would probably delist all Chinese stocks from American stock exchanges. But we all know that the news outlets sometimes jump to conclusions. Let me give you a quick breakdown to separate the fuzz from the substance.
There are two parts to the bill, which was first introduced by Senators John Kennedy (R.) and Chris Van Hollen (D.) in March 2019. The first part of the bill wants to make sure that no publicly traded company is owned or controlled by a foreign government.
The second part is that the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board must be allowed to access the audits of the foreign company. PCAOB is about the dullest name that you can get, and that's probably why it got its nickname: Peekaboo. It's an organization that audits the audits of companies. It was established after the Enron and Worldcom frauds, which couldn't be prevented by the audits themselves. The bill stipulates that if a foreign company doesn't allow this Peekaboo audit for 3 years in a row, the company will be delisted.
The reason why Chinese companies are more mentioned than other foreign companies is that the Chinese government doesn't allow that a foreign (American) institute looks at the audits of Chinese companies.
The next steps
There are a few things to know here. First, this is not a law yet, but a bill. It has to pass the Congress first. The bill was introduced by senators from both parties and passed the Senate without objections. This would make you think that the voting of the bill in Congress is nothing but a formality.
But resistance there is growing a bit because the President is focusing on blaming China for the pandemic, and rumors say that some Democrats (who have the majority in the House) are starting to have doubts about the bill because it could be sold as a victory for the President. With elections coming closer, that might become an issue.
Besides that, the removal of all Chinese companies could hit individual and institutional investors hard. The combined value of the companies is $1.8 trillion, and China is one of the best growth markets in the world. So, I can imagine that funds and investment banks have sent their most experienced lobbyists to Capitol Hill to prevent the acceptance of the bill.
My personal opinion is that the bill will pass because nobody wants to be seen as pro-China in this climate. If the bill passes Congress, the only thing that's needed before it becomes a law is a signature from President Trump.
Alibaba reacts
On Friday, just before the long weekend, Alibaba issued its earnings. On the conference call, the bill was, of course, a subject. This is the first thing that Maggie Wu, Alibaba's CFO, had to say about the bill on the conference call:
“We will closely monitor the development of this bill and I think it’s important for investors to understand Alibaba’s practice and issues raised under this proposed legislation.
She further stressed that there is a framework that already exists to inspect the audit companies that work in China and that there are ongoing talks between the SEC, the DSRC (the Chinese version of the SEC), Peekaboo and the Big Four accounting firms (Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG and PwC). The topic of the conversation is how Chinese companies can comply with Chinese law (that prohibits foreign oversight) and issue reliable, controllable information for international investors.
And Maggie Wu went on, saying:
“Number two, Alibaba’s financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and since our inception in 1999, we have been audited by PwC Hong Kong, PwC Hong Kong is the local affiliate of the worldwide PwC’s firm and its auditing standards are overseen by the PwC national office in the United States. The integrity of Alibaba’s financial statements speaks for itself. We have been an SEC filer since 2014 and hold ourselves to the high standards of transparency.
This is important information: Alibaba has been using GAAP since 1999, and it has been audited by PwC Hong Kong all those years. As a general rule, Hong Kong has a more credible reputation than China.
Maggie Wu also referred to trust, one of the core values of Alibaba, and to the fact that the company has always looked at the long term, implying, not incorrectly, that fraud could bring short-term wins but is, of course, bad for a company over the long term.
Wu concluded with probably the most important statement:
“Given the above, we will endeavor to comply with any legislation whose aim is to protect and bring transparency to investors who buy securities of U.S. stock exchanges.
Let's look at the facts
If you let your instincts take over, you'd probably think that Alibaba shareholders had better run for the hills. But if you look at the facts, the picture looks much better for Alibaba. The company is definitely not owned by the Chinese government, and the financial statements are already according to the GAAP rules.
As I wrote earlier, the Chinese government doesn't allow that a foreign institute looks at the audits of a Chinese company. But there might be a solution to this problem - the VIE structure of Alibaba (and others). Officially, the shares that are traded on the NYSE are not those of a Chinese company but those of an Alibaba shell on the Cayman Islands. Therefore, I think it will be possible for the company to comply with the demands if this bill becomes a law. And that would be good for everybody. Alibaba could have more credibility and investors more safety and protection.
Conclusion
Although this bill could instill fear in investors if it becomes a law, I think the content is good for everybody, both Chinese companies and the American investor. Nobody can't be against more shareholder protection, right? I think Alibaba is in a good position to shrug this off. It already follows the GAAP rules since 1999, and it will do everything to comply with the law. Its VIE structure might be a way to solve the problem of two opposing laws.
If you like this article, feel free to hit the "Follow" button next to my name.
In the meantime, keep growing!
Potential Multibaggers focuses on finding and holding the long-term winners that could be life-changing. The first Potential Multibagger became a tenbagger in just 3 years.
Potential Multibaggers is not for those who trade in and out of stocks. It's a place where growth-oriented long-term investors feel at home.
The results are there, with an average of 83.85% of alpha per stock pick versus the S&P500 (as of May 25, 2020).
At Potential Multibaggers, you get a new Potential Multibagger every month, monthly new portfolios, exclusive updates, several other live portfolios, a watchlist and much more. Start with a free trial now!
Disclosure: I am/we are long BABA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
▶ Moderna IPO
▶ Moderna Inc (MRNA) - 밸류에이션에 대해
▶ Moderna Inc (MRNA) - 유상증자, 몬세프 슬라위
▶ Moderna Inc (MRNA): STAT news
▶ Moderna CEO가 언론 인터뷰로 주가 올리고 주식 팔았다???
▶ Arvinas (ARVN)
▶ Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)
▶ Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)
▶ Tandem Diabetes Care Inc (TNDM)
▶ Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)
▶ Flexion Therapeutics (FLXN)
▶ Inari Medical System (NARI)
▶ Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
▶ Gilead Sciences (GILD)
'바이오 이외 섹터 > 개별 종목' 카테고리의 다른 글
| 다음주 (9/14~9/18) 주요 IPO (2) | 2020.09.12 |
|---|---|
| Bank of America 변혁의 세계 - 3분기 테마 투자 입문 종목 픽 및 주식 리스트 (0) | 2020.07.20 |
| Bank of America 3분기 투자 아이디어 10 종목 (0) | 2020.07.13 |
| 월스트릿 최고의 애널리스트들이 하반기에 배팅한 종목들 – CNBC (0) | 2020.06.29 |
| 재택근무 ETF Direxion WFH (Work-From-Home) (0) | 2020.06.26 |